AI predicts who will win the 2028 US presidential election and gets ‘jawdropping’ result
An online simulation is already sparking conversation about the 2028 U.S. presidential election, even though the race is still years away. A popular YouTube channel recently asked Grok, an AI tool developed by Elon Musk’s company xAI, to model a hypothetical matchup and predict how it might unfold. The experiment centered on a potential contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican Senator JD Vance. While entirely speculative, the video quickly gained traction, highlighting how artificial intelligence is beginning to influence political discussions long before campaigns officially take shape.
According to the creators, Grok generated its projection by combining early primary polling, betting market indicators, and historical voting trends. Using these inputs, the AI estimated how both parties’ nomination processes might develop if current patterns continued. On the Democratic side, the model showed Harris leading with roughly 32 percent support, ahead of figures like Gavin Newsom and other potential contenders. Among Republicans, Vance was projected to dominate with close to 50 percent support, placing him far ahead of Donald Trump Jr. and other hypothetical candidates. Based on this data, Grok suggested that Harris and Vance would likely emerge as nominees if present conditions remained unchanged.
After forecasting the nomination outcomes, the simulation produced a full Electoral College map, categorizing states as “solid,” “likely,” or “lean” for each candidate, similar to the framework used by professional political analysts. In the model, Vance carried traditionally Republican states and several key battlegrounds, including Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin. Harris, meanwhile, was projected to maintain strength in Democratic strongholds such as California, New York, and Massachusetts. When totaled, the AI assigned Vance 312 electoral votes and Harris 212, resulting in a clear Republican victory in this imagined scenario.
Despite the detailed presentation, experts urge the public to approach such projections with caution. The 2028 election cycle has not formally begun, and the eventual field of candidates could look entirely different. Political priorities shift rapidly, and voter sentiment is shaped by economic conditions, international crises, domestic events, and unforeseen developments that no early model can reliably predict. At this stage, polling and betting markets provide only rough snapshots, not dependable forecasts of future outcomes.
The experiment nevertheless underscores a growing trend: artificial intelligence is increasingly being used to explore political scenarios, visualize complex datasets, and generate online engagement. Supporters argue that these tools can make political analysis more accessible and interactive. Critics, however, worry that speculative simulations may be misunderstood as real predictions, potentially fueling misinformation or premature assumptions about future elections.
For now, the Grok simulation offers more insight into digital culture than electoral reality. It demonstrates how quickly political narratives can form online, even years before voters head to the polls. While the Harris–Vance matchup remains hypothetical, the attention it has received reflects the expanding role of technology in shaping public conversation about politics.
Ultimately, the AI-generated forecast is interesting, but far from certain. Elections are shaped by human choices, shifting events, and evolving priorities that cannot be fully modeled years in advance. The simulation serves as a reminder that in the digital age, political speculation travels fast — and context, verification, and patience remain essential.
